Nickel markets are focused on Indonesia’s quota cuts – but tightening sulphur supply is the real story. Disruptions in Iran, the Gulf and China, combined with declining hydrocarbon output, are constraining availability and reshaping the market balance.
Aluminium and copper are reacting differently to the same conflict. Aluminium faces real supply shocks – force majeure, halted smelters, surging premiums and constrained output – creating a price floor Copper’s rise reflects risk pricing amid ample supply, leaving it vulnerable to rapid reversal.
The market has moved in two phases: Phase one: visible stocks rose and prices fell. Phase two: available stocks tightened and prices recovered. Copper did not fall because demand disappeared. It fell because inventories rose. It recovered because available metal still looked scarce.
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